Was Trump Good for Our Economy?
A short analysis of Trump’s impact on America‘s financial health.
While the reasons vary, most of the small business owners I know have one thing in common: their belief that Trump improved the economy.
And when they say the “economy”, they mean the benefits they personally gained from his corporate deregulation, or the stock market graphs they saw online that were trending upwards, or the conversations they overheard in their social circles.
Some dislike him, some are intensely loyal, but most conservative businessowners express some level of “appreciating and respecting” Trump’s positive contributions to America’s financial health.
So, to educate myself and better understand Trump’s impact, in a topic that’s ideal for data analysis, I did some research. I wanted to know, objectively: What was Trump’s actual impact on our economy?
I scoured a variety of sites and studies, many from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, to find my answers. And after doing a bit of research, here’s what I found:
Trump has not directly impacted our economy, so much as he has “ridden the wave of good times”. He particularly leverages these “good times” when his approval ratings are the lowest.
Part 1: Trump’s “economy” hasn’t been better than Obama’s.
Economists tell us that presidents don’t really influence the economy in a significant way, given the fickle nature of global and domestic economies.
But we, as a country, historically disregard this truth. We measure presidents by economic metrics that have repeat trends, regardless of who is in power.
These metrics include our GDP (Gross Domestic Product), unemployment rates, and the health of the stock market.
Assuming we wanted to measure the value of Trump’s economic achievements from a statistical lens, especially in comparison to his predecessor, here’s what we find.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Under Trump
From a GDP perspective, our economy’s growth rate has consistently been lower during Trump’s presidency than under Obama’s, and even George Bush’s. Keep in mind that Obama inherited the recession of 2008, and George W. inherited the 2000 dot.com collapse.
Using the same GDP metric of consumer spending, plus business investments, Obama’s last three years in office had growth rates of at least 2.17% and as high as 3.06%.
For Trump, the high point was 2.83% in 2018, when tax cuts (largely benefitting the wealthy) had the largest impact. Even this percentage, however, fell short of Obama’s 2014 and 2015 growth rates of 3.06% and 3.05%, respectively.
In 2019, our adjusted growth rate of GDP was only 1.99%. This is less than each of Obama’s three last years in office (2014–2017).
Unemployment Under Trump
Regarding unemployment, the graphs below illustrate the repeat 10-year cycles of unemployment dips. Trump was inaugurated in 2017, the exact moment of 2010–2020's predictable decrease in unemployment.
Additionally, more jobs were created in the 31 final full months of Obama’s presidency (6.91 million) than during the 31 first full months of Trump’s presidency (5.85 million).
The Stock Market Under Trump
Okay, so — Trump hasn’t improved the GDP, and he hasn’t directly impacted unemployment.
What about stocks? He’s always talking about how the stock market is “the strongest it’s ever been”, meaning our economy should be at an all-time high.
Well — yes and no.
The Dow Jones has indeed reached record highs, thanks to corporate deregulation and tax cuts, which have facilitated more stock investment and have increased the wealth of the already-wealthy. Business Insider had a detailed report on how billionaires have made even more billions under Trump’s administration.
But a healthy stock market is not indicative of a healthy economy, given that the top 10% of America’s most affluent households own and control 84% of the American stock market.
94% of the very rich reported holding $10,000 or more in shares, while only 27% of the middle class reported holdings of the same or greater value.
Part 2: Well-Timed Rhetoric
One of the patterns I observed in my research, was a connection between Trump’s dip in approval ratings, and his public messaging about economic growth. These messages often came within 72 hours of the dips.
A recent example
When Trump’s disapproval rating sank all the way down to 57% a couple days ago (one of the lowest dips in his entire presidency), his Twitter account was saturated with imagery about “4.8 million jobs in June”.
He made a public appearance 48 hours after the dip happened, with the following statements:
- “We’re seeing a historic surge in jobs”. Never mind that the majority of these jobs were people returning to work post-Covid (as stated explicitly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics). Never mind the 44.1 million people that filed unemployment claims over the last 12 weeks.
Trump is immensely proud of the 7.5 million jobs created in the last 8 weeks, once again perverting a downward trend for his own motives.
2) “Our stock market is doing extremely well”, which Trump said translates to “more jobs” (?) As previously established, the success and ownership of America’s top 10% of affluent households does not necessarily translate to a healthy economy or — “more jobs”.
3) “Our government has collaborated with governors to save lives by sheltering in place” (although Trump’s animosity towards SIP is well-documented, to the point where Gavin Newsom declared California its own nation-state because the government was so opposed to a controlled Covid response).
I asked myself, Why would Trump be so opposed to sheltering in place, and business shutdowns? Hadn’t the economy seen record highs the last 4 years, meaning we should have enough government funding to support taxpayers through a necessary shutdown?
Then, thinking from the perspective of his campaign for re-election, I connected the dots:
No shelter in place =
More people returning to work (even if their lives are at risk) =
Better employment and re-employment numbers for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report.
The last time Trump saw such low approval ratings, he reacted in the same way
Coincidentally, the only other time Trump’s disapproval rating was this low (57.9%), was in the early weeks of August 2017, when he defended white supremacist groups during the violent protests in Charlottesville, VA; he pardoned Joe Arpaio, a politician and law enforcement officer who was found guilty by a US district judge, for racially profiling residents whom he believed were in the US illegally; Trump was also in the thick of his Mueller investigation, at a point where his finances were being analyzed.
How (un)surprising then, that on August 14 in 2017, Trump made a public statement that “the stock market was at a record high with 20% gains, unemployment is at a 16-year low, and businesses are more optimistic than ever.”
Trump then strategically proposed his tax cut plan, sprinkled with misdirection and fallacies.
He kicked the plan off by claiming he had improved GDP by 3% in one quarter, which “Obama had never done” (Obama didn’t surpass 2.9% annually, but he surpassed the 3% margin 8 times on a quarterly basis).
Then, on a roadshow in Springfield, MO, Trump said, “We believe that ordinary Americans know better than Washington, how to spend their own money — and we want to give them more to take home.”
He said he was going to “put an end to the ‘rigged system’ and work to build a tax code that allows all Americans to have access to the American Dream and work their way up the economic ladder.’
He said his tax cuts would benefit hard-working Americans and the middle class.
So how exactly did he define this strategy, when push came to shove?
Lowered corporate tax rates and deregulation… for the wealthiest business owners in the country.
Because (obviously) “lower taxes on American businesses means higher wages for American workers”. I’m sure Jeff Bezos would agree ;)
Impeccable timing, Donnie.
In conclusion, there’s no accuracy regarding Trump’s statements about, or positive impact on, the American economy.
So to anyone who says “(I like him because or I don’t like him, but at least…) Trump’s been good for the economy”, please educate yourself. Question what you’re hearing. Trump’s economic narrative is his last stronghold, and he knows it, so the deception won’t stop — but your unawareness can.
And if you continue to ignore the facts, that’s on you.
